FPL Opposition Defensive Ratings (ODR) Tracker – Gameweek’s 3 to 8
Posted by FFPundits
7:00am Aug 23 2019
Solid attacking returns from West Ham, Everton and Chelsea are expected on Gameweek 3, according to @FPL_vs’ ODR model.
Firstly, ODR stands for Opponents Defensive Rating and I got the inspiration from the Official Fantasy Premier League, who created FDR’s (Fixture Difficulty Rating) a few seasons ago.
ODR and FDR illustrate the same thing, but calling them FDR’s is very misleading in my opinion – but allow me to explain why.
Here’s an example: if Manchester City play Aston Villa at home, that would be an FDR1 – yet if Watford also play Villa at home, that fixture will also be an FDR1.
Make sense? No, not really, so simply calling them ODR’s instead, indicates the rating the teams opposition has of keeping a clean sheet, regardless of their opponents.
5 for the best vs 1 for the worst.
My ODR’s explained
First of all, the furthermost columns in the tracker illustrates the ODR’s for each team that I have initially created from the amount of goals conceded last season and this season, both from a home and away perspective.
I plan on refreshing the ODR’s every 4-6 Gameweek’s so these will dynamically change across a full season.
NOTE: These ODR’s are built based on the opposition’s defensive stats (Clean Sheets and Goals Conceded) alone yet this may change when I develop them further.
The full table simply takes these ODR’s and drops them into the fixtures for a rolling 6 gameweek forecast.
I have then added two indicators from a 4GW and a 6GW view to demonstrate which teams have the toughest and more lenient fixtures.
There is a weighting applied of x2 to the stats from this season over those from last season. I have manually adjusted the colours of some of the teams where they have the same resulting ODR score.
These ODR’s are very basic but much more accurate and current than the Official FPL ratings in our opinion.
I plan to amend this table at the end of each Gameweek and will post and pin the updated tracker as a pinned tweet on my twitter profile – @FPL_vs.
The ODR’s will next be re-calibrated after Gameweek 4.
If you have any questions, improvements or suggestions on how to make this better, I am all ears and very much welcome your feedback.
If you are not already, please follow me at @FPL_vs and feel free to continue to discussion.