FPL Opposition Defensive Ratings Tracker - Gameweek's 29 to 34
Posted by FFPundits
10:00am Feb 28 2019
Leicester City, Chelsea and Manchester City look like the safest bet for clean-sheets in FPL Gameweek 29
Firstly, ODR stands for Opponents Defensive Rating and I got the inspiration from the Official Fantasy Premier League who created FDR’s (Fixture Difficulty Rating) a few seasons ago.
ODR and FDR illustrate the same thing but calling them FDR’s is very misleading.
For example if City play Fulham at home that would be an FDR1 yet if Cardiff also play Fulham at home, that will too be an FDR1, make sense?
Not really, so calling them ODR’s simply indicates the rating the teams opposition has of keeping a clean sheet. 5 for the best vs 1 for the worst.
We’ll also be keeping an eye on the Premier League’s team odds at Sportingbet to ensure our ODR is sensibly re-calibrated each week, by taking the match odds in to consideration.
My ODR’s explained
First of all, the furthermost columns in the tracker illustrates the ODR’s for each team that I have initially created from the amount of goals conceded last season and this season, both from a home and away perspective.
I plan on refreshing the ODR’s every 4-6 GWs so these will dynamically change across a full season.
It’s also worth noting that, with one eye being kept on the FA Cup fixtures,
NOTE: These ODRs are built based on the opposition’s defensive stats (Clean Sheets and Goals Conceded) alone yet this may change when I develop them further.
The full table simply takes these ODR’s and drops them into the fixtures for a rolling 6 gameweek forecast.
I have then added two indicators from a 4GW and a 6GW view to demonstrate which teams have the toughest and more lenient fixtures.
If you wish to see the maths behind these ODR’s then please click this link that will show you how I calculated them as they are.
There is a weighting applied of x2 to the stats from this season over those from last season. I have manually adjusted the colours of some of the teams where they have the same resulting ODR score.
These ODR’s are very basic but much more accurate and current than the Official FPL ratings.
I plan to amend this table at the end of each gameweek and will post and pin the updated tracker as a pinned tweet on my twitter profile – @FPL_vs.
The ODR’s will next be re-calibrated after Gameweek 32.
If you have any questions, improvements or suggestions on how to make this better, I am all ears and very much welcome your feedback, as you can see from my latest update.
If you are not already, please follow me at @FPL_vs and feel free to continue to discussion.
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