Time to consider Arsenal's Mesut Özil? - FPL Punts of the Week - Gameweek 16
Posted by FFPundits
10:44pm Dec 6 2017
Fantasy differentials from Leicester, Arsenal and Chelsea top our Punts of the Week list for Gameweek 16
Good day Fantasy Premier League managers and welcome back to our weekly Punts of the Week article, where @FPL_Connect will look to inspire us with THREE cheeky differentials under 5% ownership for Gameweek 16.
With the trio of Pogba, Sané and David Silva being ditched from FPL teams in their droves ahead of Saturday’s 11:30am deadline, we tasked Simon from FPLConnect.blog with finding us 3 differentials under 5.0% to consider as viable replacements.
This week, Simon kindly took time off from his Wednesday night Pokémon Club meet-up to bring you his Punts of the Week for Gameweek 16, so let’s see what our very own Ash Ketchum has to offer.
Gotta catch ’em all!
Riyad Mahrez vs. Newcastle (A)
I wouldn’t normally go with the same player twice on the bounce, however, this man has only risen 0.5% in ownership to now 5.0% since my last article and given the guy’s consistency and value for his price, seems to be criminally under-owned.
There is an abundance of talent in midfield to be had and that’s probably why Mahrez is still lowly owned, but he’s second only to KDB, Silva and Ramsey for assists this year with him having 7 so far and those mentioned on 8 and also has 3 goals to his name.
KDB is priced at almost £2.0m more than Mahrez, Silva has 25pts in the last 7 gameweeks compared to Mahrezs’ 42pts in that time and City look to be going off the boil somewhat recently.
The only player out of those 3 that is looking the best choice for value is Aaron Ramsey, who is just £7.2m and has 52pts in the last 7 gameweeks.
The only issue with Ramsey is him being injury-prone – he’s managed to avoid it this year, but it is a worry that never goes away with him.
For those that like to avoid injury-prone players, Mahrez could be the perfect replacement if you’re looking to hop off David Silva, for example.
Mahrez has Newcastle at St James Park up next, who are the joint 3rd worst team for conceding big chances at home.
With a goal and an assist in his last two games, Mahrez has the form and the fixture to continue providing good value for his owners.
Cesc Fábregas vs. West Ham (A)
Fábregas (4.8% owned) has hardly set the world alight in FPL this year with a goal and 3 assists, but he has pedigree and is an assist machine.
In the 8 FPL seasons he has been involved in, Fábregas has registered 113 assists, which works out at an average of 14.1 assists a season. Quick maths.
He’s also posted 2 x 200+ totals, so if history is anything to go by, we should see an improvement in Fábregas’ output soon.
If we compare his underlying stats to Manchester City’s midfield maestro David Silva so far this year, you can see his performances are there, it’s just a matter of time before we start seeing it in the form of FPL returns;
· 67 crosses to Silva’s 45.
· 11 through balls to Silva’s 10.
· 44 chances created to Silva’s 36.
· 24 minutes per chance created to Silva’s 35.
The key difference between the two so far is that Silva gets himself into the box more and the chances he [Silva] creates are being taken by his teammates.
Considering his price of £6.9m and the upcoming run of favourable fixtures Chelsea have, he could be set for a good run.
Pre-empting bandwagon’s is probably the most difficult thing to be good at in FPL, but if you do get it right, it can be season-defining in some cases.
I’m not saying this could be a season-defining case, but given the fixtures, quality of the player and the underlying stats, Fábregas could certainly hit a purple patch – do you plan on getting out in front of it?
Mesut Özil vs. Southampton (A)
One player that’s largely been going under the radar recently is Arsenal’s number 11, Mesut Özil – owned by just 2.2% of Fantasy Premier League managers at the time of publishing.
When we think of spending a fair bit of our budget on Arsenal, it’s usually synonymous with a certain Alexis Sánchez, but right now, it might be worth looking cheaper at either Ramsey, or even the German international play-maker.
In the last 6 gameweeks Özil’s played, he’s scored 2 and notched 5 assists, as well as 7 bonus points totalling 45pts in that time.
He is probably a little too expensive given that Ramsey is killing it right now and is £2.1m cheaper, but again, Özil isn’t as injury prone as Ramsey and is historically a more consistent FPL asset than Ramsey.
Özil has created 43 chances for his team-mates, with 8 of those being big chances, which is level with arguably the best player in the Premier League right now in Kevin de Bruyne and betters him for ‘minutes per chance created’ with Özil’s ratio being 21 to KDB’s 27.
Arsenal look to have really picked it up recently and were it not for yet another phenomenal David de Gea performance, we might be looking at 4 wins in 4 in the Premier League for Arsenal.
They also have very good fixtures from now extending through to GW26, with Liverpool (H) and Chelsea (H) being the only testing fixtures on paper in that time.
Pellegrino’s Southampton are up next for Arsenal and given the way Arsenal were cutting through United at ease in their last game, I’d imagine they’ll be doing something similar against Saints and I can see Özil contributing attacking returns.
BEFORE YOU GO: Join The Pundits staff in Gameweek 16 for a game of Starting 11 this Saturday and Sunday for some LIVE, daily fantasy football action. Keep your eyes peeled for some cool prizes and follow the download links below for iOS and Android to get involved.